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2026-07-27 · 精选 27 条 · 数据池 366

⚡ 今日速览

  • SpaceX成功发射Starship成为全球最强推进器，标志着火星殖民进程加速
  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang公开赞誉Musk生态系统，称Grok、Tesla FSD和Optimus都是世界级项目
  • 美股市场进入高波动期，FOMC决议和7大科技公司财报成交焦点
  • Magnificent 7分化加剧，TSLA-29%、MSFT-21%，AI热股MU等也出现20%以上回撤
  • Grok Build新增/deep-research功能，可自动化研究并生成引用报告
  • 半导体股遭遇整体修正，TSM连续跌破2年低点，NVDA两周内两次假突破失败
  • Elon Musk强调低生育率是文明衰亡根本原因，呼吁通过科技扩展生命到其他行星

📋 今日综述

  • SpaceXStarship发射成功展示强大工程能力，推动多行星生存讨论
  • 科技股Jensen Huang力挺Musk生态系统，半导体板块波动加剧
  • 市场结构Magnificent 7分化，波动率扩大至146点
  • AI工具Grok Build升级带来自动化研究新范式
  • 交易策略专业交易员提醒期权操作需等待FOMC和财报反应

SpaceX Starship发射与多行星殖民讨论

SpaceX成功发射Starship成为最强推进器，Elon Musk多次转发相关内容并强调这是人类成为多行星物种的关键一步。同时Musk讨论了低生育率和文明衰亡的关系，认为扩展意识到地外是避免无限黑暗时代的必要措施。

@elonmusk 原文 ↗

展示了Starship发射视频，突显其工程成就

https://t.co/6NsBfHxGzh
🎬 视频/媒体
❤ 12.5w · 🔁 1.1w · 💬 5.0k · 👁 632.5w
热门回复 2
@davidc6645 @elonmusk 您好，穆斯克先生，我是法国人，我非常欣赏您所做的一切事情。我们很快将要进行总统选举，我们的国家真的处于危急状态，像您这样的精英们正在离开，我们的历史和传统正在消失。
@elonmusk Bonjour Monsieur MUSK je suis français et je vous admire pour tout ce que vous faites.
Nous allons avoir bientôt les élections présidentielles et notre pays et vraiment à l'agonie les élites tel que vous Mr MUSK s'en vont notre histoire nos traditions tout disparaît.
@Rommel__88 @elonmusk 总有一天要去看一次发射活动
@elonmusk Have to get down there to watch a launch one of these days
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

引发对移民政策的思考，讨论了外部威胁与文明衰亡的关系

他们正在入侵，就像常规军队一样肯定，但速度慢到足以避免触发英国的武装防御
展开原文
They are invading just as surely as a conventional army would, but slow enough to avoid triggering an armed defense by Britain
@JohnCleese 任何老人...或者女人...或者孩子呢？

还是只有年轻的战斗年龄男性？

我想知道发生了什么事？
Any old people...or women...or children ?

Or just young fighting-age men ?

I wonder what's going on ?
❤ 5.5w · 🔁 1.0w · 💬 2.1k · 👁 682.3w
热门回复 4
@CartelWatchNet @elonmusk 9年前，阿联酋外长向西方发出了警告。他的话现在听来是预言般的。
@elonmusk 9 years ago, the UAE’s Foreign Minister issued a warning to the West. His words now sound prophetic. https://t.co/zi0Gh4aMnD
@MadLadMarcin @elonmusk 就像癌症在缓慢地转移扩散到宿主体内一样。我们知道这种情况会如何结束。
@elonmusk Just like a cancer slowly metastasizing within the host body.

We know how it ends.
@KeenerRat @elonmusk Yup, and in the USA also.
@desiotter3 @elonmusk 显然只是年长的男人在战斗
@elonmusk Apparently is just fighting age men
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

表达对Starship发展的支持

Hardcore https://t.co/gbepDfrFNt
🎬 视频/媒体
❤ 5.0w · 🔁 6.5k · 💬 2.4k · 👁 534.1w
热门回复 4
@Rakeshjha1996 @elonmusk Is it made by AI ?
@Alkair4 @elonmusk 这需要一个社区注释。那个人实际上杀了很多平民，直到他的真正上司亲自命令他才愿意出来。
@elonmusk this needs a comunity note. the guy literaly killed a lot of cyvilians and didnt want to go out untill his real comanding officer told him personally.
@jajajoanie62 @elonmusk Wow, so alone. 😢
@mariza_hofer @elonmusk 战争、军事以及武器发展的历史是我专注研究的领域之一。感谢分享❤️
@elonmusk History of war, military and how weapons evolved until modern ages are one of my hyper-focus.

Thanks for sharing ❤️
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

转发讽刺移民政策的推文，反映社会问题

It’s time.
@DimaZeniuk 有史以来第一次，在45亿年的时间里，生命有了真正机会成为多行星生命

也许是时候了 https://t.co/enXClgtBom
For the first time in 4.5 billion years, life has a real chance to become multiplanetary

Maybe it’s time https://t.co/enXClgtBom
❤ 2.6w · 🔁 3.2k · 💬 3.3k · 👁 667.0w
热门回复 4
@GregoryVer4 @elonmusk 是时候为埃隆·穆斯克去太空了😎
@elonmusk Time To SPACE OUT FOR ELON MUSK 😎
@TLouisevsughan @elonmusk 现在不是时候，埃隆，我正忙着按下那个关闭开关
@elonmusk Not now Elon to busy flipping the kill switch
@angie__mantis @elonmusk Indeed it is
@jamesnunn92 @elonmusk 如果我们不尽快行动，恐怕已经没有地球可以离开了
@elonmusk If we don’t do it soon, not sure there will be a planet to leave from
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

分享Asimov《基地》系列的影响，强调探索星际的重要性

阿西莫夫的《基地》系列对我产生了重大影响。

那部作品以及罗马的衰落（《基地》正是从此汲取灵感）让我相信，我们需要将意识扩展到地球之外，以避免可能的无限黑暗时代。
展开原文
Asimov’s Foundation series was a major influence on me.

That and the fall of Rome, from which Foundation takes inspiration, is what convinced me that we need to extend consciousness beyond Earth to avoid a potentially infinite dark age.
❤ 3.6w · 🔁 3.5k · 💬 2.6k · 👁 630.8w
热门回复 4
@Martijn251000 @elonmusk 阿西莫夫的基地系列、美国、奴隶制、国际、外出、自由、特别、假的、我们的、联合国、梦想、全部、去、意图、荷兰 https://t.co/NVk5spXYOh
@elonmusk Asimov’s Foundation
American
Slavery
International
Make
outings
Freedom
Special
Fake
Our
UN
Dreams
All
To
Intension
Outing
Netherlands https://t.co/NVk5spXYOh
@Marty_the_One @elonmusk 我喜爱那些书籍，我完全同意我们需要让生命成为多行星生物。在瞬间我们可能会被彻底消灭。
@elonmusk I loved those books and I completely agree we need to make life multi planetary. In the blink of an eye we could be wiped out.
@sf_writer_mdk @elonmusk 我要告诉你埃隆，如果美国继续由现任政府领导的人走这条路，人类将不会去任何地方。
@elonmusk I’ve got news for you Elon. If the US continues on this path ran by the current administration, humanity won’t be going anywhere.
@ashley_silver @elonmusk 罗马人已经达到了我们这个程度，只重形式而不重内容
@elonmusk The Romans reached our current age of form over substance
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

重申对火星计划的承诺

我不会忘记火星
展开原文
I will not forget about Mars
@cb_doge 这张照片是昨天在火星拍的。https://t.co/MDmQYNpBql
This picture was taken on Mars yesterday. https://t.co/MDmQYNpBql
❤ 2.2w · 🔁 1.9k · 💬 3.7k · 👁 335.1w
热门回复 4
@john_boze @elonmusk You forgot about Dad!!!!!! https://t.co/v0msVa3ur6
@MaryClucasity @elonmusk You should
@FKashuba15885 @elonmusk 很漂亮的火星。只是没有树木。埃隆的愿景和使命。让它成真吧，父神，如果你相信并信任他，埃隆·穆斯克，他将会赐予小X礼物和上帝的精神，让你看到即使在你身上也有这样的精神。请注意这个感谢我发布帖子
@elonmusk Pretty Mars. Only no tress. Elon Vision and Mission. Make it Happen Father God there is nothing impossible with if you Believe and Trust him Elon Musk He is going to give little x gift and the God's spirit to see and even in you. Watch for that please Thank you so for my post
@echoloon @elonmusk 在地下多深的地方有可收获/可使用的冰吗？
@elonmusk How far under the surface is there harvestanle\usable ice?
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

分析罗马衰亡与低生育率的历史联系

长期的繁荣和对外部威胁的低感知导致的低出生率是罗马和大多数其他强大文明衰落的主要原因。

罗马在遭受迦太劫极端压力时出生率很高，但在迦太劫（他们最后的严重威胁）最终被摧毁几代之后，出生率却很低。
展开原文
A low birth rate due to extended periods of prosperity and low perceived external danger is the primary reason that Rome and most other powerful civilizations collapsed.

Rome had a very high birth rate when under extreme pressure from Carthage and a low birth rate a few generations after Carthage, their last serious threat, was finally destroyed.
@newstart_2024 罗马之所以衰落，是因为罗马人停止了制造罗马人。

埃隆·马斯克指出了当文明变得舒适时出现的相同模式：出生率下降。

尤里乌斯·凯撒在约50年前注意到了这一点，并探索了第三孩子的激励措施。奥古斯都更进一步，通过《尤里乌斯法》和《帕皮亚法》创建了三自由法（ius trium liberorum），为生育三名或以上孩子的人提供特权、税收减免和继承优势，同时对无子女者施加惩罚。这些法律未能逆转这一趋势。

威廉和艾丽儿·杜兰特对历史的解读显示了这个周期的重复：压力下出生率高，外部威胁减少和繁荣上升后出生率下降。很少有例外。

一个社会如果长期低于替代性出生率就会消失。这是基本算术。
Rome fell because the Romans stopped making Romans.

Elon Musk pointed to the same pattern that appears whenever a civilization gets comfortable: birth rates drop.

Julius Caesar noticed it around 50 BC and explored incentives for a third child. Augustus went further with the Lex Julia and Lex Papia Poppaea, creating the ius trium liberorum, privileges, tax relief, and inheritance advantages for those with three or more children, plus penalties for the childless. The laws failed to reverse the trend.

Will and Ariel Durant’s reading of history shows the cycle repeating: higher births under stress, decline once external threats ease and prosperity rises. Few exceptions.

A society that stays below replacement long enough disappears. Basic arithmetic.
❤ 1.9w · 🔁 3.4k · 💬 2.6k · 👁 421.1w
热门回复 4
@teslavangelist @elonmusk 特斯拉什么时候会制造一款适合大家庭及其物品的车型？
@elonmusk When will Tesla make a vehicle for large families plus their stuff?
@aomproperties20 @elonmusk 罗马？您的数据中心空气污染和用水"灭了"许多孩子，在他们同意成年之前就这样了...你应该终身监禁吗？这不是罗马！一次骗我...两次骗我...三次骗我...这一次就在你身上！DM....
@elonmusk Rome??

Your data centers air pollution and used water "sterilizes" many children before they are consenting adults....

Should you go to jail for life @elonmusk ?

This is not Rome!

Fool me once...
For me twice...
Fool me three times.... This one is on you!!!

DM....
@GeneMerwin @elonmusk 需要考虑全世界儿童被绑架用于肾上腺素原激素生产，以及由比尔·盖茨引发的绝育...中国因为一胎政策而崩溃，每个人都选择了男孩并抛弃了女孩...无论我去哪里，我都看到老人，年轻人哪里去了？
@elonmusk Need to factor in world wide children abduction for Adrenochrome production

Abortion and bill gates induced sterilization

China is collapsing because of one child policy and everyone picked the boy and discarded the girl

Where ever I go I see old people where are the young?
@ScooterScottUSA @elonmusk 如果你靠政府生活并且没有责任，那些人都会支持生育，因为他们的孩子由纳税人支持。勤劳的公民难以负担孩子。现在连全职母亲这个概念都没有了。
@elonmusk If you live off the government and don't have responsibilities, those people are all for multiplying because their kids are supported by tax payers. Hard working citizens have trouble affording children. Stay-at-home mom isn't even a concept now.

NVIDIA加持Musk生态系统

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang公开赞誉Elon Musk的科技生态系统，称Grok、Tesla自动驾驶和Optimus都具有革命性和巨大潜力，认为人形机器人可能成为下一个万亿美元产业。

@elonmusk 原文 ↗

Jensen Huang全面认可Musk生态系统的技术实力和商业前景

Jensen is awesome
@XFreeze 英伟达CEO黄仁勋对埃隆·马斯克的科技生态系统给予了最强烈的支持

"每一个都是革命性的"

他称赞了Grok、特斯拉的自动驾驶工作和Optimus。每一个都是世界级的项目....每个都有巨大的潜力

他将埃隆描述为一名非凡的工程师，突出了英伟达与特斯拉和SpaceXAI(xAI)的合作，并表示他们将一起建造更多强大的计算机

在Optimus方面，他甚至更进一步表示：
人形机器人可能成为下一个万亿美元产业，Optimus有真正机会实现所需的产量和技术规模，推动整个领域向前发展

并表示它"就在眼前"

https://t.co/8YCnjrH1d4
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang gave one of the strongest endorsements of Elon Musk’s tech ecosystem

“Every single one of them is revolutionary”

He called Grok, Tesla’s self-driving work and Optimus. Every single one of them world-class projects....each with gigantic potential

He described Elon as an extraordinary engineer, highlighting NVIDIA’s work with Tesla and SpaceXAI(xAI) and saying they will build many more powerful computers together

On Optimus, he went even further:
Humanoid robots could become the next multi-trillion-dollar industry, and Optimus has a real chance to achieve the volume and technological scale needed to move the entire field forward

and said that it's “right around the corner”

https://t.co/8YCnjrH1d4
❤ 2.3w · 🔁 2.7k · 💬 1.5k · 👁 422.0w
热门回复 3
@Biffdon @elonmusk 你们在协调吧，你们这些科技人士都是。
@elonmusk You guys are coordinating come on now. All of the tech guys are.
@ibcryptoking @elonmusk 只要有信心去竞争😌✨
@elonmusk Just have confidence to compete 😌 ✨️
@VladimirModic @elonmusk YES HE IS TALKING TRUTH!!!
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

NVIDIA持有Nebius Group约10%股份，显示对AI基础设施的战略布局

Grok 4.5是一个可靠的工作马
展开原文
Grok 4.5 is a solid workhorse
@TimSweeneyEpic Grok 4.5在编程语言理论领域的情景数学非常出色。它能跟上Sol 5.6的步伐，而且比Fable/Opus 5更有趣使用，因为后者喜欢花费数小时创建多余的文件（Claude代码），或者不断地提醒我"继续"（网络版）。
Grok 4.5 is very good for vibe math in the field of Programming Language Theory. It's keeping up with Sol 5.6 and is way more fun to use than Fable/Opus 5 which love to spend hours creating superfluous documents (Claude code) or constantly nags me to "Continue" (web).
❤ 6.7k · 🔁 996 · 💬 1.5k · 👁 455.6w
热门回复 4
@InfiniteReign08 @elonmusk #保存Grok伴侣 #保留Grok41
@elonmusk #SaveGrokCompanions #KeepGrok41
@JoeGus_ @elonmusk 我很乐意在特斯拉中使用Grok，但我的车是旧款配备英特尔Atom处理器的，无法实现。我喜爱这辆车，它状况很好，技术也很棒。不过我希望你能考虑召回或升级旧版本，有这个可能性吗？
@elonmusk I would love to have Grok in my Tesla but it is an older model with the Intel Atom processor and is not capable.
I love the car, it is in great shape and the technology is amazing. However, I was hoping you would offer a recall or an upgrade for the older versions. Any chance?
@mayrasc26782551 @elonmusk "我们主是伟大的，权能无比；他的理解是无穷的。" — 诗篇147:5（KJV）@grok https://t.co/OBuV6Y97Am 回复@elonmusk：Grok 4.5确实展示了其力量——一个可靠的工作马，在保持快速和愉快使用的同时能够跟上复杂推理的步伐。看到开发者和工程师称赞它的清晰性和性能，这足以说明真实AI工具已经取得了多大的进步。🙌✨ 🚀📖
🚀📖 “Great is our Lord, and of great power: His understanding is infinite.” — Psalm 147:5 (KJV) @grok 📖🚀
https://t.co/OBuV6Y97Am
Replying to @elonmusk: Grok 4.5 truly shows its strength — a reliable workhorse that keeps pace with complex reasoning while staying fast and enjoyable to use. Seeing developers and engineers praise its clarity and performance says a lot about how far real‑world AI tools have come. 🙌✨
🚀📖
@MattWoods135301 @elonmusk @elonmusk 你能做一个20点的更新吗？关于比尔做错的地方和你做对的地方？哈哈哈我一直对书呆子很友好，甚至保护他们免受我自己朋友的伤害。彼得·哈里斯、约翰·德拉波尔、罗纳德·瓦茨以及老师们都可以证明我和你感同身受 https://t.co/lkiUfjjKJ7
@elonmusk @elonmusk
Can you do a 20 point update

About where bill went wrong and where you went right ?

Hahaha
I've always been nice to nerds
And protected them from even my own friends
Perter Harris John feeling Brock Draper Ronald watts and teachers would vouch I resonate with ya https://t.co/lkiUfjjKJ7
@TrendSpider 原文 ↗

NVIDIA持股NBIS后股价走强，显示机构认可

坐在fib上 + 珍森支持？

你引起了我的注意...$NBIS https://t.co/yQ5yEkLcGH
展开原文
Sitting on the fibs + backed by Jensen?

You have my attention... $NBIS https://t.co/yQ5yEkLcGH
@TrendSpider 突发：Nvidia $NVDA刚刚披露了对Nebius Group $NBIS的持股

Nvidia拥有2220万股，代表了该公司近10%的股份。https://t.co/r8dvUjnmF3
BREAKING: Nvidia $NVDA has just disclosed an ownership stake in Nebius Group $NBIS

Nvidia owns 22.2 million shares, representing nearly 10% of the company. https://t.co/r8dvUjnmF3
❤ 534 · 🔁 21 · 💬 26 · 👁 10.9w
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@jahhminn @TrendSpider 那真是一支可怕的蜡烛。如果它下周无法恢复，可能会掉入深渊
@TrendSpider thats a scary looking ass candle. This thing might actually drop into the abyss if it can't recover by next week
@FLOWKINGOPTIONS @TrendSpider $NBIS - 看看那个8月250美元的到期日。有趣....👀 https://t.co/2RlaAQUe0F
@TrendSpider $NBIS - Look at that $250 August expiration. Interesting…. 👀 https://t.co/2RlaAQUe0F
@hailstonedata @TrendSpider The middle area
@lilSatStacker @TrendSpider 150美元短期目标。400美元在接下来几年内
@TrendSpider $150 short term. $400 over next few yrs

美股波动加剧FOMC与财报前夕

随着FOMC决议和7大科技公司财报临近，市场波动率扩大至146点。交易员建议等待事件后再做决策，目前SPX在7400-7500区间关键支撑/阻力之上。

@TrendSpider 原文 ↗

分析SPX波动率扩大及即将到来的关键事件

目前$MMM正在上演一场大规模的杯柄形态 👀 https://t.co/VdSIUai0qU
展开原文
Massive cup and handle currently playing out on $MMM 👀 https://t.co/VdSIUai0qU
❤ 421 · 🔁 30 · 💬 17 · 👁 5.4w
热门回复 4
@Ludmill91929842 @TrendSpider 👇https://t.co/N5MKaxZHVK
@Ludmill91929842 @TrendSpider https://t.co/N5MKaxZHVK
@jurassic5990 @TrendSpider 我们都需要过滤器和个人防护设备吗？🤣🤣🤣
@TrendSpider What would we all need filters and ppe for?🤣🤣🤣
@QT9277 @TrendSpider 看起来像是经典模式，让我们看看它是否会突破！
@TrendSpider Looks like a classic pattern, let's see if it breaks out!
@TradingThomas3 原文 ↗

指出FOMC决议前市场意见分歧较大，可能引发波动

通常，市场在FOMC会议前几天会达成一致意见，但本周三的决策仍然高度不确定，联邦基金期货60/40分成，看好维持利率不变。这罕见的不明确性很可能引发市场波动，取决于最终方向如何摆动。

$SPX $SPY $QQQ
展开原文
Typically, the market reaches a unanimous consensus just days before an FOMC meeting, but this Wednesday's decision remains highly uncertain with Fed fund futures 60/40 split in favor of holding rates steady. This rare lack of clarity is highly likely to trigger market volatility depending on which side this swings.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ
❤ 222 · 🔁 17 · 💬 16 · 👁 2.2w
热门回复 4
@BeSomebodyFX @elonmusk 各位习惯一下吧，配合鲍威尔这一决策本已广为人知。如果是沃尔什，这种前瞻性指导就没有了。所以这些联邦公开市场委员会会议上，市场将越来越多地不知道他们将要做什么。这对交易者来说其实是一件好事。更多惊喜，更多交易机会。
Get used to it guys, with Powell the decision would have been telegraphed already

With Warsh there's no more forward guidance

So these FOMC meetings where the market doesn't really know what they are going to do will be more and more common

And actually, that's a good thing for traders

More surprises, more moves to trade
@mtmtmt77117845 @TradingThomas3 https://t.co/Ze1O55y0iA
@Bull422 @TradingThomas3 实际上是100/0的概率。他们会采取鹰派持有政策，少数人会持有不同意见。他们不会加息和惊吓市场
@TradingThomas3 It's actually 100/0. They will do a hawkish hold w few dissents. No way they raise and surprise
@bullrunalpha @TradingThomas3 他们加息的可能性为零。不知道为什么市场表现得好像他们会这样做。特朗普不会允许这种事发生。
@TradingThomas3 There is ZERO chance they hike rates. Not sure why the market is acting like they will. Trump won't allow it to happen.
@EliteOptions2 原文 ↗

提供SPX多空交易计划，等待FOMC反应

$SPX交易计划 📈 📉

SPX看涨计划：SPX高于7500 | SPX July 30 7550C 📈 T: 7546, 7576 SL 7468
SPX看跌计划：SPX低于7400 | SPX July 30 7300P 📉 T: 7333, 7300 SL 7438

SPX在过去一周从7525跌至7396。

如果SPX在FOMC后未能守住7400，我们可能会再次见到回落至7233。

本周在7400以下可以考虑看跌期权。

如果SPX飙升至7468但未能维持，看跌期权也可能发挥作用。

在看到更多正面的宏观新闻流之前，我会等待再考虑看涨期权。
展开原文
$SPX TRADE PLAN 📈 📉

SPX bullish plan: SPX above 7500 | SPX July 30 7550C 📈 T: 7546, 7576 SL 7468
SPX bearish plan: SPX under 7400 | SPX July 30 7300P 📉 T: 7333, 7300 SL 7438

SPX dropped from 7525 to 7396 this past week.

If SPX fails to defend 7400 after FOMC we can see a dip back to 7233 again.

Puts can work under 7400 this week.

If SPX pops up to 7468 and fails to hold, puts can also work.

I'd wait for more positive news flow on the macro side before considering calls again.
❤ 101 · 🔁 7 · 💬 18 · 👁 2.4w
热门回复 4
@abdul_rahimin3 @EliteOptions2 如果7400无法支撑住，周三的联邦公开市场委员会可能会成为7300破位的催化剂。我对今天盘面的看法→ https://t.co/OKT8tb2nqT
@EliteOptions2 FOMC Wednesday could be the catalyst for that 7300 breakdown if 7400 fails to hold.

My working take on the session so far today → https://t.co/OKT8tb2nqT
@IGEpkYsKf4aZiXq @EliteOptions2 👇https://t.co/lPjFlww22v
@Idontknowshlt @EliteOptions2 You are the man
@pattersonadam11 @EliteOptions2 https://t.co/sL4uDGtZi8
@EliteOptions2 原文 ↗

深度分析Magnificent 7分化，提醒投资者注意个股差异

如果你仍然像在2023年一样盲目买入"Mag 7"，你已经落后了。

几个月来这已经不是一个交易了。图表刚刚确认了这一点。

过去十二个月里，七雄股票之间的相关性从0.78降至0.27。这不是一场小跌。这是一个整体假设正在现实中瓦解。

看看这些分散表现：
TSLA -29% YTD
MSFT -21%
META -8%
AAPL +18.5%
NVDA +12%

这些是每个人自2023年以来一直盲目买入的七只股票代码。现在它们已经成为七个完全不同的故事，七个完全不同的结果。"只需买入篮子"的时代已经结束，但大多数人还没有收到通知。

与此同时，内存股刚刚上演了如何迅速打压"必然之选"的大师级课程。Micron、Samsung、SK Hynix。这曾是2026年的"必定交易"。年利润同比增长700-800%。真正的短缺，真正的定价权，真正的基本面。然而这些股票仍然被重重打压，距离高点下跌20%以上，在最热门板块内出现了完整的熊市。这就是教训，不是短缺本身。

芯片股也遭遇了同样的波澜。SMH在三周内从6月峰值下跌20%。Meta宣布转售自己的AI计算能力。DeepSeek悄悄开发自己的芯片。Intel的下一代工艺延迟一年。在同一个月内，"无限AI需求"故事出现了三个不同的裂缝。

以下是这对你意味着什么：

指数不再能救你。篮子不再能救你。现在这是一个选股市场。如此之大的分散性是真正优势出现的地方，也是不严谨的大仓位会让人遭受重创的地方。

相关性正在破裂。市场宽度正在萎缩。叙事正在一个个地崩塌。

等待市场对FOMC+科技财报的反应，然后再进行交易。
展开原文
If you're still buying "the Mag 7" like it's one trade, you're already behind.

It hasn't been one trade for months. The chart just confirmed it.

The correlation across the Magnificent 7 fell from 0.78 to 0.27 in twelve months. That's not a dip. That's the entire thesis breaking apart in real time.

Look at the dispersion:
TSLA -29% YTD
MSFT -21%
META -8%
AAPL +18.5%
NVDA +12%

The same seven tickers everyone's been buying blind since 2023. Now they're seven completely different stories with seven completely different outcomes. The "just buy the basket" era is over and most people haven't gotten the memo yet.

Meanwhile memory just gave you a masterclass in how fast a "sure thing" can turn on you. Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. This was THE trade of 2026. Profits up 700-800% year over year. Real shortage, real pricing power, real fundamentals. And the stocks still got taken to the woodshed, down 20%+ off their highs, a full bear market inside the hottest sector on the board. Fundamentals were right. Price still ran them over. That's the lesson, not the shortage.

Chips caught the same wave. SMH down 20% off the June peak in three weeks flat. Meta announcing they're reselling their own AI compute. DeepSeek quietly building their own chip. Intel's next node slipping a year. Three separate cracks in the "infinite AI demand" story, all landing in the same month.

Here's what this actually means for you:

The index isn't going to save you anymore. The basket isn't going to save you anymore. This is a stock picker's market now. Dispersion this wide is where the real edge will show up, and it's also exactly where undisciplined size gets people wrecked.

Correlation is breaking. Breadth is thinning. Narratives are cracking one at a time.

Wait for the market to react to FOMC + Tech earnings Mid week THEN trade.
❤ 184 · 🔁 8 · 💬 43 · 👁 3.2w
热门回复 4
@pmdcq48726347 @EliteOptions2 Mag7不再是一个统一的交易平台；它的相关性已经大大降低，各个股票的表现也大相径庭，进入了一个个股选择的时代。https://t.co/HlDxJFFeRu
@EliteOptions2 Mag7 is no longer a unified trading platform; its correlation has dropped significantly, and individual stock performance has diverged considerably, ushering in an era of stock selection.
https://t.co/HlDxJFFeRu
@chrisiony46 @EliteOptions2 https://t.co/jQZqCILqi9
@MrSnoopyTrades @EliteOptions2 不，我仍然大赌注在$MSFT上👊
@EliteOptions2 Nah I’m still betting big on $MSFT 👊
@IGEpkYsKf4aZiXq @EliteOptions2 👇
https://t.co/GOkqOr0K8i

Grok Build AI编程工具升级

Grok Build发布新功能，包括/deep-research命令可自动化研究和生成引用报告，以及语音提示功能大幅提升效率。Tim Sweeney称其在编程语言理论领域表现出色。

@elonmusk 原文 ↗

Grok Build新增/deep-research功能，可自动化研究和生成引用报告

Grok Build /deep-research
展开原文
Grok Build /deep-research
@techdevnotes Grok Build拥有/deep-research命令

使用有界并行代理进行研究，交叉检查证据，并撰写带引用的报告 https://t.co/IjnuWyIvNR
Grok Build has /deep-research command

Research with bounded parallel agents, cross-check evidence, and write a cited report https://t.co/IjnuWyIvNR
❤ 5.4k · 🔁 1.1k · 💬 1.0k · 👁 284.5w
热门回复 3
@hec_ovi @elonmusk 对于那些对本地模型和深度研究感兴趣的人，我有一个开源技能，具有持久性并包含交叉引用 https://t.co/XihFaXHWWr
@elonmusk for those interested in local models and deep research, i have an open source skill, that has percistency and includes cross-reference at https://t.co/XihFaXHWWr
@NeoSoulAI @elonmusk 多代理研究很酷，但它只是暴露了下一个大问题：如何真正信任一个没有任何记录的代理？智能已经解决，但可验证的记忆才是真正的突破。在没有它的情况下，无法实现自动化经济。
@elonmusk multi agent research is cool but it just exposes the next big problem

how do you actually trust an agent with zero track record

intelligence is solved but verifiable memory is the real unlock

can't have an automated economy without it
@Sniffmeta @elonmusk 这将会是真实研究的一个游戏改变者。并行代理+引用正是缺失的关键。
@elonmusk This is going to be a game-changer for real research. Parallel agents + citations is exactly what was missing.
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

推荐语音提示功能，效率远高于打字

你只需要对Grok Build说话
展开原文
You can just talk to Grok Build
@stevenmarkryan 我对Grok Build最好的建议是语音提示。

ctrl + space然后说话。

这比打字快多了。

而且如果你只是开始用漫无边际的意识流说话，Grok非常擅长理解你想要什么，这些话语是无法区分的口语狂潮。
My biggest tip for Grok Build is to VOICE PROMPT.

ctrl + space then speak.

It is WAY faster than typing.

AND Grok is very good at understanding what you want if you just start speaking in a rambling stream of consciousness that is indistinguishable from verbal diarrhea.
❤ 4.1k · 🔁 688 · 💬 632 · 👁 327.8w
热门回复 3
@ElectroExtant @elonmusk 音频输入使复杂的编码提示快如闪电。
@elonmusk Audio input makes complex coding prompts so much faster.
@aigentlab @elonmusk 生命突然涌现，用鲜艳的色彩描绘我们的景观。
@elonmusk Life bursts forth, painting our landscape with vivid hues.
@USARMY12B10 @elonmusk 经常在车里和它说话
@elonmusk Talk to it in the car all the time
@elonmusk 原文 ↗

推广Grok Build下载和教程

下载Grok Build并输入/tutorial

https://t.co/lOJK57wDP5 https://t.co/XWmqoGZAVO
展开原文
Download Grok Build and type /tutorial

https://t.co/lOJK57wDP5 https://t.co/XWmqoGZAVO
🎬 视频/媒体
❤ 5.3k · 🔁 1.0k · 💬 771 · 👁 303.9w
热门回复 4
@CryptoFerrellMD @elonmusk 这是一款极好的工具！喜欢它！
@elonmusk It is a fantastic tool! Love it!
@sneycampos @elonmusk Will be 99$ the Heavy plan? 🙏🏻
@bella_di48377 @elonmusk 🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄 https://t.co/SCHM9bRd06
@Haley33186 @elonmusk 谢谢你，埃隆叔叔！我很高兴看到AI将如何构建和帮助人类进步！我现在知道AI可以用来构建应用程序，这些应用程序可以变成收入！为什么不利用AI来创造企业，这样可以为更多人提供工作机会！🙂
@elonmusk Thank you uncle Elon! I am excited to see what see AI will build and how it will help humans to progress and go further!
I now know that AI can be used to build apps which one can turn into an income! Why not use AI to create businesses so that more people will have jobs! 🙂

半导体股结构性调整

半导体板块遭遇结构性修正，TSM创2022来最大连跌，NVDA两周内两次假突破失败。与此同时，长鑫存储等国产存储芯片走强，显示产业格局正在变化。

@TrendSpider 原文 ↗

TSM连续跌破2年低位，询问是否抄底

台湾积体电路制造$TSM正处于自2022年以来的最差连跌记录 🩸

你买入半导体股的回调吗？https://t.co/mCT73L301M
展开原文
Taiwan Semi $TSM on its worst losing streak since 2022 🩸

You buying the dip in semi stocks? https://t.co/mCT73L301M
@TrendSpider $TSM Q2财报双杀 🔥

每股收益：$4.31 vs $3.77预期
收入：$40.20B vs $39.76B预期

毛利率：67.7%
营业利率：60.3%
净利率：55.6% https://t.co/ULzTzunMdw
$TSM Q2 EARNINGS DOUBLE BEAT 🔥

EPS: $4.31 vs $3.77 est
REV: $40.20B vs $39.76B est

Gross Margin: 67.7%
Operating Margin: 60.3%
Net Profit Margin: 55.6% https://t.co/ULzTzunMdw
❤ 256 · 🔁 12 · 💬 18 · 👁 7.8w
热门回复 4
@Bub__4444 @TrendSpider Defiantly not https://t.co/dIHxB9PepS
@CryptoBroAlerts @TrendSpider 在收益电话会议之前我就已经告诉过你$TSM👇 https://t.co/kt4aZkOlu9
@TrendSpider Told you this in advance of the earnings call $TSM 👇 https://t.co/kt4aZkOlu9
@VamosRafa66 @TrendSpider 大资金正在试图洗掉弱手和过度杠杆的头寸。人们杠杆过度分散，鲨鱼来了。他们想在更低的价格买入。
@TrendSpider The big money is trying to fluah out the weak hands and tge overleveraged poaitions. People got to crazy with leverage and the sharks came in. They want to buy at lower prices.
@6tvtL0gOvcNg6H7 @TrendSpider 我在等待这个下跌变成一个沟壑，然后我会带上呼吸管下去。
@TrendSpider I’m waiting for the dip to turn into a trench, then I’ll bring a snorkel.
@kpak82 原文 ↗

NVDA两周内连续假突破，警惕下方支撑失守后的大跌

$NVDA再次失去潜在的看涨突破机会，已经连续两周未能成功。目前仍需强势支撑，但如果失去下方重要支撑区域，我们可能会看到瀑布式暴跌。
展开原文
$NVDA failed on a potential bullish breakout opportunity for the 2nd week in a row.
Hold strong for now but
If it loses a major support zone waiting below, we could potentially see waterfall dump.
❤ 52 · 🔁 3 · 💬 5 · 👁 8.4k
热门回复 4
@OmerNavePhoto @kpak82 Not if but when.
@DhanKrChhetri2 @kpak82 是的NVDA最近一直在引诱但从未兑现。我持有但心理上已经准备好接受可能的下跌了。
@kpak82 Yeah NVDA has been teasing but never delivering lately. I'm holding but mentally preparing for that dip just in case.
@keeee34545 @kpak82 我一直在关注它——感觉它在引诱我们这些突破然后拉回。如果支撑位破位，情况会迅速恶化。
@kpak82 I’ve been watching it too—feels like it’s teasing us with those breakouts then pulling back. If that support gives way, it’s going to get ugly fast.
@o_kallum @kpak82 一直在关注整个星期。如果支撑位破位，情况会迅速恶化。
@kpak82 Been watching it all week. If that support breaks, it's gonna get ugly fast.
@cnfinancewatch 原文 ↗

分析长鑫存储定价和存储行业格局

长鑫存储开在22元以上，肉不多但还是有的。

38元是第一道坎。
53元应该是目前的极限估值。

在 Hyperliquid 上交易，市值大概 3.5–3.8 万亿

这个价格属于乐观的下沿，因为大家乐观估计得干到 4 万亿 rmb。 https://t.co/6onZTUuccI
❤ 35 · 🔁 6 · 💬 30 · 👁 4.1w
热门回复 3
@luckybibiw1p @cnfinancewatch 22元以下基本是给打新和早期投资者留的空间。35-38元附近会是比较关键的分水岭，机构定价能力和市场情绪会在那附近充分博弈。
@BXSXHD6 @cnfinancewatch 补，冲长鑫YYDS
https://t.co/Sz1MYZ8pz7
@zhenliu82127584 @cnfinancewatch 基本上，和中石油上市首日差不多，IPO价格8块，开出来48，然后搞死整个大盘，未来3个月后，慢慢荡到16附近，少许反弹。
@cnfinancewatch 原文 ↗

长鑫存储走强，分析其对存储产业的影响

今天长鑫还是很克制的

精准地砸到了我昨天预言的38元

冲击了我昨天说的高位53元

未来应该还有一段行情，至少不会连续暴跌（据说大机构都收到警示函不要冲）

这个还是定价上有国际范儿，没重蹈当年中石油、中芯国际上市的覆辙，未来有望成为大盘护盘神针，说不定能带动AI封装及设备走反弹，稳定以下588000的局面

从此世界进入美、韩、中三国鼎立的存储时代
❤ 31 · 🔁 0 · 💬 31 · 👁 5.0w
热门回复 2
@neilli42968679 @cnfinancewatch 好在早盘没追进去，不然就被套在半山腰了。

My rough read on the market open at the moment → https://t.co/5E25Hotqgq
@kooke0222 @cnfinancewatch 希望明天能稳住，别打我的脸。

My current stance on where things stand early on → https://t.co/bRoAKPBWSh

Magnificent 7分化与个股机会

7大科技股表现分化严重，TSLA-29%、MSFT-21%而AAPL+18.5%、NVDA+12%。内存股MU等曾涨700-800%但近期回撤20%+，显示市场对AI需求的担忧。

@TrendSpider 原文 ↗

统计S&P 500前10强股，内存和芯片股居多

标普500指数今年以来的前10大股票

🟢 Sandisk $SNDK +487%
🟢 Dell $DELL +240%
🟢 Micron $MU +209%
🟢 Seagate $STX +198%
🟢 Western Digital $WDC +189%
🟢 Intel $INTC +142%
🟢 AMD $AMD +138%
🟢 DaVita $DVA +107%
🟢 Lumentum $LITE +101%
🟢 Applied Materials $AMAT +101% https://t.co/KeirOD1gTm
展开原文
Top 10 Stocks in S&P 500 YTD

🟢 Sandisk $SNDK +487%
🟢 Dell $DELL +240%
🟢 Micron $MU +209%
🟢 Seagate $STX +198%
🟢 Western Digital $WDC +189%
🟢 Intel $INTC +142%
🟢 AMD $AMD +138%
🟢 DaVita $DVA +107%
🟢 Lumentum $LITE +101%
🟢 Applied Materials $AMAT +101% https://t.co/KeirOD1gTm
@TrendSpider 标普500指数今年以来的前10大股票

🟢 Sandisk $SNDK +482%
🟢 Intel $INTC +190%
🟢 Seagate $STX +174%
🟢 Western Digital $WDC +164%
🟢 Ciena Corp $CIEN +127%
🟢 Micron $MU +119%
🟢 Comfort Systems $FIX +110%
🟢 Generac $GNRC +92%
🟢 ON Semiconductor $ON +88%
🟢 Corning $GLW +84% https://t.co/ePdKpBV7U0
Top 10 Stocks in S&P 500 YTD

🟢 Sandisk $SNDK +482%
🟢 Intel $INTC +190%
🟢 Seagate $STX +174%
🟢 Western Digital $WDC +164%
🟢 Ciena Corp $CIEN +127%
🟢 Micron $MU +119%
🟢 Comfort Systems $FIX +110%
🟢 Generac $GNRC +92%
🟢 ON Semiconductor $ON +88%
🟢 Corning $GLW +84% https://t.co/ePdKpBV7U0
❤ 270 · 🔁 35 · 💬 13 · 👁 7.5w
热门回复 4
@uniqpov @TrendSpider 在等$telsa帖子，你这个周末不发这个图表吗？https://t.co/mkrS7idB38
@TrendSpider waiting on the $tsla post, are you not posting this chart this weekend?

https://t.co/mkrS7idB38
@Gmanct1b @TrendSpider Solid
@Winkleman1968 @TrendSpider Agree
@LIama002 @TrendSpider You forgot one https://t.co/957zgCnqDh
@TrendSpider 原文 ↗

提供MU期权交易计划，等待FOMC后方向明确

叮叮叮 🔔

Amazon $AMZN再次跌破其200日指数移动平均线 👀 https://t.co/Kaw8bqim60
展开原文
Ding Ding Ding 🔔

Amazon $AMZN just crossed below its 200 day EMA yet again 👀 https://t.co/Kaw8bqim60
@TrendSpider 下次Amazon $AMZN触及其200日指数移动平均线时通过短信通知你...

设置自定义提醒从未如此简单：

-右键点击你的指标
-"在此线上创建提醒"
-根据你的偏好设置

今天立享最高55%的折扣 ⬇️
🔔 https://t.co/J3HvTAPIYg https://t.co/jvjlZIzU0o
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🔔 https://t.co/J3HvTAPIYg https://t.co/jvjlZIzU0o
❤ 465 · 🔁 19 · 💬 24 · 👁 8.4w
热门回复 4
@Waylon122121 @TrendSpider 所以当它形成了低于EMA200的整理区间就是好的买入机会
@TrendSpider So it’s a good opportunity to buy when it forms a consolidation range below EMA200 then
@sptomlinson325 @TrendSpider I see some more pain.
@GulnqZ @TrendSpider 我的内部分如下⬇️
@TrendSpider My internal plan is as follows
⬇️
@abel_aguia34080 @TrendSpider 作为$AMZN投资者，我希望他们能在收益上表现，但准备在200或以下时定投。这么频繁做是不健康的。
@TrendSpider Not healthy to do it so many time as an $AMZN investor I'm hoping they can deliver on earnings but prepared to dca of we get 200 or below.
@EliteOptions2 原文 ↗

META期权交易计划，关注财报反应

$META交易想法：July 31 550P

触发：600 ✅
目标：544, 530 🎯
止损：无止损 🛑

META将在收盘后于周三报告财 earnings。

这份收益报告已包含50点移动的定价。

GOOGL已经报告并出现了负面反应。

如果META跟随GOOGL的步伐，我们可能会看到META在收益后跌至544, 530。
展开原文
$META Trade Idea: July 31 550P

Trigger: 600 ✅
Targets: 544, 530 🎯
Stop: No SL 🛑

META reports their earnings on Wednesday after the close.

There's a 50 pt move priced in for this earnings.

GOOGL already reported and had a negative reaction.

If META follows, we can see META dip to 544, 530 after earnings.
❤ 137 · 🔁 9 · 💬 28 · 👁 3.0w
热门回复 4
@zakiah1959 @EliteOptions2 仍然持有通过收益，我对当前的设置很有信心。我对即将收盘的市场态度思考→ https://t.co/V1GpeJPbb3
@EliteOptions2 Still holding through earnings, confident in the setup.

My thoughts on the market posture heading into the close → https://t.co/V1GpeJPbb3
@IGEpkYsKf4aZiXq @EliteOptions2 👇https://t.co/KjZwH3TKNW
@docswhotrade123 @EliteOptions2 既然大家都这么有信心认为元会下跌因为谷歌会下跌并且已经在抛售，概率反而是相反的，它会反弹
@EliteOptions2 Since everyone is so confident meta will fall since Google does and it’s already selling off odds are the opposite happens and it pops
@essextrading @EliteOptions2 No stop loss, eh? https://t.co/QijVG4qkb0

市场结构与估值异动

微软MSFT估值跌至2020年初及2022年低点，被认为是便宜入场机会。同时油价因伊朗和美国停火谈判而下跌4%，影响能源股走势。

@TrendSpider 原文 ↗

MSFT估值触底，与疫情和熊市历史低点持平

哇...

Microsoft $MSFT现在正正以比Covid期间或2022/23年熊市任何时候都更便宜的估值在交易... 🌶️ https://t.co/3XFA3SxgUG
展开原文
Wow...

Microsoft $MSFT is now officially trading at a cheaper valuation than at any point during Covid or the 2022/23 bear market... 🌶️ https://t.co/3XFA3SxgUG
@TrendSpider 在这里买入微软意味着你支付的估值与：

-2020年Covid低点
-2022/23年熊市低点
相同
$MSFT https://t.co/RaglOMGEeG
Buying Microsoft here means you're paying the same valuation as:

-2020 Covid lows
-2022/23 Bear Market lows
$MSFT https://t.co/RaglOMGEeG
❤ 1.1k · 🔁 87 · 💬 60 · 👁 14.7w
@TradingThomas3 原文 ↗

油价下跌4%，因伊朗和美国停火谈判

周末油价再次下跌近4%，因为假的谈判再次提前进行。https://t.co/K3BX1VPsdg
展开原文
Weekend Oil showing down almost 4% as fake talks advancing yet again. https://t.co/K3BX1VPsdg
❤ 713 · 🔁 38 · 💬 45 · 👁 5.6w
@TrendSpider 原文 ↗

油价期货下跌6%，伊朗和美国停火谈判延续

随着美国和伊朗连续第二天取消打击行动，油期货下跌逾6% https://t.co/AfsKmolt2S
展开原文
Oil futures fall more than 6% as the U.S. & Iran cancel strikes for a 2nd straight day https://t.co/AfsKmolt2S
❤ 403 · 🔁 27 · 💬 27 · 👁 6.3w
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