X日报 · 综合

BREAKING: Pakistan's Prime Minister announces that the US and Iran have officially reached a peace deal and the official signing will take place on June 19th in Switzerland.

"Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," he says.

Iran says US will commit to give Iran access to frozen funds.

The US must leave Iran in 30 days after deal, per BBC

Netanyahu informed Trump that Israel is not bound by the Lebanon clause in the agreement, per Israel media

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran confirms it will not sign deal with the US today.

HEGSETH: We have controlled the straits this entire time

BRENNAN: You're negotiating with them to reopen it https://t.co/BEgqpmYBB5

BREAKING: Trump: Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Hormuz traffic is recovering, per Bloomberg, though slowly.

This is not a meme coin.
These charts are crude oil futures.
Crashing through the center of the earth with terminal velocity.
Crude futures are now at $74 a barrel.
At $65 a barrel gas was $2 a gallon average nationwide.
We’re a few dollars away from pre-war gas prices ⛽️ 🔥 https://t.co/GN0MaoXZHF

President Donald Trump is hosting a UFC fight night on the White House grounds as part of America's 250th anniversary celebrations, per CNN

WTF!!!!!

Trump is f-cking using Honor Guards at a UFC event on the Lincoln Memorial.

No this is NOT ok. Don’t you dare call yourself a “patriot” while supporting this crap. https://t.co/gBdz0jbTan

🚨 CHILLS. ABSOLUTE CHILLS.

UFC star Michael Chandler heads to the octagon alongside 100-year-old Medal of Honor recipient Royce Williams

Williams single-handedly shot down 4 enemy jets in the Korean War.

Legend 🇺🇸🙏🏻 https://t.co/g6tkaptS5X

Eric Trump got caught trying to rig fights at the UFC event tonight. The entire Trump family are scammers and con artists. Disgusting. https://t.co/n6cGBRZAgh

Trump hauls off current UFC champ for 'criticizing Israel' https://t.co/zC95WuaWte

This is what happens to Americans that stand up against Israel.

UFC fighter Sean Strickland dragged out by Trump.

The US is under occupation https://t.co/7f5MIYyRCM

BREAKING: The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

NEW: The White House reportedly has suspicions that China has accessed Claude Mythos.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that US restrictions on new Anthropic AI models show danger of relying too much on American providers

so how does "the white house contacted anthropic" work

do they call them on the phone? what phone

is it a landline?

NEW: UK officially bans AI “romantic companion” chatbots for under-18s.

I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on:

Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory.

Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS.

Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs.

But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it.

Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them.

If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy?

Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three.

But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day.

And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.

$IREN Thesis: H2 2026 - 2027

Financial Model: https://t.co/cNsypVJ1or

Previous Thesis Review
I'd like to start each updated thesis by reflecting on what went right and wrong on my previous thesis (1) and if the wrongs are being addressed.

Although I flagged HBM as potential trajectory altering bottleneck in February (2), I saw the HBM bottleneck impact as increased Capex but did not foresee the issues arising from delays in GPU deliveries.

You see, GPUs and HBM are co-packaged. This means, Nvidia secures the HBM supply and then TSMC integrates the GPU and HBM into the same package to make a GPU chip. Nvidia then controls the GPU chip deliveries to hyperscalers or server integrators like Dell, SMCI, and Lenovo.

IREN was getting GPUs from both Dell and Lenovo late which actually means Nvidia did not prioritize them. In ramping up a datacenter, there's only so much theory based preparation IREN can do. In hardware engineering, ramp up problems can arise sequentially. Only once you get the a significant batch of GPUs and run them for longer periods of time, do you uncover cooling deficiencies. Only once you get the cooling right, can you run networking stress test scripts. I'm sure IREN had built in slack time to mitigate delays but there's no mitigation for GPU deliveries arriving months late. Thus we have seen a painful revenue ramp for IREN in H1 2026.

For 2027, the largest change was that Nvidia and IREN formed a strategic partnership to accelerate deployment of AI Infrastructure (3). Contract wise, this is written has Nvidia gets options to buy IREN at $70 vesting upon "Nvidia GPU infrastructure is deployed across IREN campuses and only fully vest upon deployment of 600k GPUs" (6:40-6:55 of 4). However, for Nvidia, these options aren't the true motivator, but rather it's about expanding their ecosystem as I will explain later.

For H2 2026, the change will be that B300/GB300 production will be fully ramped. In 2025-H1 2026, beyond the unprecedented demand, exacerbating the demand-supply imbalance was that the B200/GB200 was a smaller generation of GPUs compared to H100/H200 and B300/GB300 because the Blackwell ramp had faced technical and supply chain challenges (5).

Demand Review
In early February, I identified that Anthropic would release unprecedented growth numbers would result in urgent GPU demand (6). While the demand from Anthropic has played out, Anthropic subsequently signed with everyone possible from CRWV (7), xAI to Akamai Cloud (8) and Amazon, Google, Microsoft. IREN opted to make their flagship SW1 campus be Vera Rubins rather than GB300s but I will explain why this is a prime site for Anthropic.

The Core Thesis
Every AI thesis should be firmly grounded on roadmap and incentives of the AI Hyperscalers: Nvidia, Anthropic and OpenAI.

The previous generation of Hyperscalers followed the Amazon model: excel at cloud infrastructure for in-house projects and provide managed software services for enterprises applications.

The AI generation of Hyperscalers will follow the Anthropic model: excel at agentic AI that builds software in house and provide agentic AI for enterprises to build vertically integrated applications and tailored software infrastructure.

Why vertically integrated applications and tailored software infrastructure? Contrary to misconception, AI does not make SaaS obsolete but rather raises the bar for SaaS. Just like how excelling at Leetcode and reading DDA is no longer sufficient for software engineering interviews, application level software is no longer sufficient for SaaS companies.

We saw the following business solidify their moat through vertically integrated applications and tailored software infrastructure:
2000s: Amazon, Google
2010-2025: Meta, Netflix, Uber, Salesforce, Airbnb, TikTok, Palantir, Tesla.

In the 2026-2030 AI will enable smaller teams to output more software and having vertically integrated applications and tailored software infrastructure will be a requirement of SaaS companies to have proprietary services and squeeze out optimizations. In other words: if you've played around with Claude Code at all, you will know that application level software by itself is not a differentiated business.

Beyond the OpenAI and Anthropic, there will be a important role for open source and custom models. However, generating application code and connecting it to Token APIs will not be a differentiated business. The margins will come from optimizing the inference stack based on application call patterns down to bare metal. Some companies like Cursor and $TEM have gone as far as building their own custom models to derive proprietary differentiation and accrue margins.

Open Source Models
Open Source will be important. Open Source Models will be like Linux: very important but optimizing Linux is not a big business. Many leading enterprises have in-house customized distributions of Linux optimized for their workloads.

While there is alot of chatter about how Anthropic and OpenAI Token cost have become borderline untenable (9), the thing you have to understand is that Anthropic and OpenAI are building a ecosystem not a token generator. If Open Source takes significant enterprise market share because it's cheaper, Anthropic and OpenAI will have different tier models on the cost curve. Both Anthropic and OpenAI need high market share to achieve economics of scale and form an ecosystem. They already have cost tiered models but if Open Source starts to take significant enterprise market share, OpenAI and Anthropic will get more aggressive.

Let's me put it another way: principal engineers at Google are using Claude Code to build GCP (10). Claude Code is improving rapidly. Do you think the AI Natives and Leading Enterprises of tomorrow will build their own software infrastructure or pay out 80% margins to Neoclouds?

IREN's Role
I see IREN's software acquisitions in Mirantis as a 2-3 year stop gap while AI Natives and Leading Enterprises ramp up on AI while Claude Code continues to improve.

In the age where Nvidia/Anthropic/OpenAI are the Hyperscalers, I see IREN as the Exxon ($XOM). XOM does alot more than producing oil and gas, they do all the downstream work to refine, distribute and create chemcial dervatives of oil. Likewise, IREN has the expertise to do power studies to secure grid connected power and build out power infrastructure but vertically integrated in the sense it does datacenter design, datacenter operations for hardware uptime, and managed Kubernetes.

Some who are trying to invest in Neoclouds as an AI play are ignoring the risks of how AI will disrupt software. AI does not make software obsolete at all but it increases the software which leading enterprise will have optimized in-house. There will be many successful Colocation providers and Neoclouds but IREN unique in that it has more vertical integration than colocation providers (CIFR, WULF, HUT) but without higher valuation premium for the software layer (CRWV, NBIS) primed for disruption and more grid connected power secured than anyone else outside the old HS.

Other Neocloud investors may say electricity is cheap but once you look $BE, you realize secured power is valuable. The margin which other Neoclouds like $ORCL and $NBIS give up to BE is margin advantage for $IREN. In other words, with 4.9GW of secured power and multi-GW pipeline, $BE and $IREN have a shared-factor exposure to power but with $BE market cap at 86B, IREN's power component isn't properly valued yet.

Anthropic/OpenAI as Foretellers of Software in the Age of AI
Just how Amazon pioneer web architecture which became the forerunner runner of managed services, Anthropic and OPenAI are the pioneers are AI driven software development and serve as guidance of how the software landscape will develop in the next 5 years.

Those who think Anthropic is depending on AWS, CRWV or god forbid Akamai for Cloud Infrastructure don't understand that Anthropic is the best software company on earth. Prior that title belong to Google who developed all their software infrasturcture in house. Anthropic was recently hiring for engineers for ROCm (11), this shows that Anthropic is developing their entire inference stack down the AMD GPU. You bet that already have optimized inference and training stacks for Nvidia GPUs if they are already working on porting it to AMU GPUs.

OpenAI is partnering with Dell to bring Codex to on-prem (12). On-prem means deploying Codex to an enterprise's own datacenter. Clearly this means OpenAI has their own inference stack. There's no reason for OpenAI to make this an Dell exclusive, OpenAI will allow enterprises to deploy Codex onto bare metal as this allows them to expand their market share beyond their allocated compute. This will be a tool as they fight Anthropic and Open Source for market share.

The takeaway is that Anthropic and OpenAI have optimize their model, inference stack, and workload orchestration all the way to the accelerator. Anthropic and OpenAI will be running optimally whether on CRWV, NBIS, or IREN bare metal GPUs. No matter if you are on CRWV, NBIS or IREN bare metal, Nvidia instruction set architecture is the same. For Anthropic who brings their own inference stack, none of the Neocloud software matters.

Nvidia
Now why would Nvidia be incentivize to increase IREN's priority for GPU deliveries? @Agrippa_Inv and @franklee6924T have written extensively about NVIDIA DSX initiative where IREN's SW1 site will the "flagship deployment for Nvidia's DSX architecture but I'll explain it from a historical angle.

Nvidia has extremely well in building a moat from iterating on CUDA, to buying Mellanox to dominate backend inter-rack GPU networking, to buying Groq for low latency inference. However Nvidia has a key risk as long as AWS, Azure, GCP own the customer relationship, the risk of these Hyperscalers developing their own ASIC is always there. Granted these ASICs are not immediately threatening to Nvidia, Jensen works on long foresight and prevents threats before they rise.

Jensen practically brought up CRWV to hedge against the Hyperscalers and then gave strong backing to NBIS. Now, it's strategic parternship with IREN is the third leg to hedge against the trio AWS, Azure and GCP.

In the 1990s, Wintel (Windows Intel) dominated the margins. Echoing Andy Grove's strategy of commoditizing your complement, Nvidia is trying to commoditize the current hypperscalers. IREN might yet be the best match for Nvidia strategy because it's about monetizing power at scale and not trying to grow margin on the inference stack. In other words, Nvidia is the modern day bigger Intel, Anthropic/OpenAI are the modern day bigger Windows/OS X, and IREN, CRWV, NBIS are the modern day bigger Dell, IBM, Compaq. In the page of AI, infrastructure buildout will be much larger than PC integrators and IREN will be XOM scale DC/IaaS buildout.

Research Posts
Above is the overarching view on the IREN thesis. I have written posts covering individual components of the IREN thesis and will continue to cover developments.

Financial Model: https://t.co/kk5RuXkg6A
Power Bottleneck: https://t.co/BLDcv4odis
Value of Secured Power: https://t.co/Tq3C4ZsXbw
IaaS and PaaS Markets: https://t.co/lZ3gBigik5
Why AI Research Breakthrough that drastically Reduces Need for GPUs is Highly Unlikely: https://t.co/iefzZ18GhW
Edge AI: https://t.co/ppSa7MNiiq
Netflix Case Study: https://t.co/8II8eRJHXf
Open Source Models on Open Sourced Infrastructure: https://t.co/mo4sNFNXbi
Mirantis Strategy: https://t.co/l1Tx3jVmpR
Mirantis Technical Capabilities: https://t.co/r0miDdCcGd
Mirantis Sovereign AI: https://t.co/ezva8bwmZZ
Datacenter Vertical Integration: https://t.co/OcSbKsylY2
Hybrid DLC + RDHx Cooling: https://t.co/C2fD6gNa9K

Credits
X accounts actively posting IREN Research that I read:

OGs who research I've read from $5:
@FransBakker9812 - analyzes everything IREN including satellite images, documents for powered land developments, and site employee hearsay for his sub group
@Agrippa_Inv - the cleanest thesis and long form research
@_Sgr_A_Star - gets deep into financial releases
@bitcoinbutcher1 - sunday spaces lead
@Umbisam - risk cautious but not risk adverse insights
@nanotitan28 - doing IREN TA since day 1

Large Accounts with Excellent IREN Coverage
@TheTechInvest - great coverage of Tech Stocks with all in IREN allocation, previously all-in Nvidia
@kevinxu - 8 figure successful investor with high IREN conviction
@moninvestor - small/mid cap specialist who fully understands the IREN thesis

Industry Coverage:
@scludweed/@alanbialo - great repost and who happen to be whales. Not listed here but the biggest retail whale has a bigger allocation than seed investors but shouldn't be revealed for privacy reasons.
@MarkosAAIG - Day 3 NBIS Investor Industry Coverage
@pepe_maltese - Institutional Grade POV
@GlobalCollapse - options dealing
@XCapitalMgmt - the legit account covering IREN with Capital in it's name
@GyujinAAIG - Korean Medical Resident also covering IREN, Semis and Materials
@ilzmcfly - forensic grade digging
@StockAnalystPro - AI Director at MSFT POV

Seed Investors: @BTCYESPLS, @mikealfred, @TheBigDegen, @roberto45580514

JUST IN: Nvidia is reportedly seeking to raise $20,000,000,000.00 in its first bond sale since 2021.

Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs:

1. $SIVE
2. $LPK
3. $SOI
4. $RPI
5. $IQE
6. $ALRIB
7. $XFAB

Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO.

Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now.

LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE.

"More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production"

Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments.

Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments.

Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well.

IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others.

Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued.

Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year.

Lot more derisked now, very important.

Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics.

Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs.

XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical).

Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi.

We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts.

From my own personal thoughts:

Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway.

$LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies.

$RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai.

$IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark.

$XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though.

$SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum.

There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general.

These are the ones I've liked the most.

Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports.

Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes)

My optical positions are very happy to hear this:

From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI (lasers) / $LITE / $SIVE, and others.

Taiwanese optical players like VPEC, Landmark, and others should go brrr as well.

Just to recap: the photonics market, especially for laser companies is moreso "how much can you make" rather than how much demand is there.

InP substrates was one of the main bottlenecks affecting upstream capacity.

So if you're able to make more = more revenue.

$NVDA and $GOOGL lead 800V DC ahead of schedule.

"Ahead of schedule", pulled up to Q3 2026 with small volume shipments starting .

- Delta Electronics (2308), $VRT
- Song Chuan Precision (7788)
- Schneider Electric, Eaton, Siemens.

All flagged as beneficiaries.

"Market sources indicate that Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Google’s next-generation AI data centers will be the first to adopt the technology"

Source: Commercial Times

The power semi trade should be happy to hear this.

BREAKING: Elon Musk has become the first trillionaire

BREAKING: SpaceX's IPO is expected to mint thousand of new millionaires, including cafeteria workers, per Bloomberg.

SpaceX employee #1 made $1.1 BILLION dollars. https://t.co/NRxq7A9DHD

JUST IN: Elon Musk predicts SpaceX could reach ~$1,000,000,000,000.00 revenue in 2030.

JUST NOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone conversation today.

Putin congratulated Trump on his 80th birthday. Trump was touched, thanked him, and noted that Putin was the first foreign leader to call. https://t.co/icankKMeZ0

JUST IN: Trump & Zelenskyy reportedly held phone call to discuss ending the war, agreed to meet at the G7.

There are few other markets that so neatly comply to understanding using classical charting principles as Bitcoin (Schabacker, Edwards, Magee) https://t.co/LT1Hxztx23

Os japoneses começaram a recolher o seu lixo do estádio após acabar o jogo contra a Holanda. https://t.co/wIumtdXM71

🚨 LA DISCIPLINE JAPONAISE... C'EST TROP !!! 🇯🇵😭😭

Au Japon, les supporters attendent le FEU ROUGE pour se rassembler et faire la fête... et quand il repasse AU VERT, ils s'écartent pour laisser passer les voitures. 🤩 https://t.co/IL5BLWZcmr